A 30-year water-sharing agreement between India and Bangladesh is nearing its end. And the next few weeks could decide how the two neighbours manage one of their most important shared rivers.

Bangladesh wants stronger guarantees over the water it receives from the Ganga. Bihar, meanwhile, wants the Centre to consider its water needs before signing a fresh agreement. India now has to find a way to address both concerns without affecting its own interests.

The existing agreement expires on December 12, 2026. But this is not just another diplomatic deadline. Millions of people depend on the river for farming, drinking water and their livelihoods. Any change in how the water is shared could have an impact on communities on both sides of the border.

Why does this matter?

 The next agreement could shape water availability during the dry months, when river levels fall and demand remains high. It could also influence India-Bangladesh relations in the coming years.

What Does the Ganga Water Treaty Cover?

India and Bangladesh signed the Ganga Water Sharing Treaty on December 12, 1996. Then Indian Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina signed the agreement for a period of 30 years.

It sets out how the two countries share the Ganga's water at the Farakka Barrage in West Bengal during the lean season, from January 1 to May 31. After the river enters Bangladesh, it is known as the Padma.

The arrangement is important because water levels usually fall during these months. Bangladesh depends on the river for agriculture and other water needs. India also diverts water towards the Bhagirathi-Hooghly river system, which helps maintain navigation and water flow towards Kolkata Port.

The Bangladesh Joint Rivers Commission explains the water-sharing formula used at Farakka:

The agreement also provides for each country to receive 35,000 cusecs in alternate 10-day periods between March 11 and May 10.

A cusec means one cubic foot of water flowing per second. The formula is designed to share the available water during a period when the river has less flow.

Why Does Bangladesh Want a New Agreement?

Bangladesh is a lower-riparian country. In simple terms, this means the Ganga flows through India before entering Bangladesh. So, the amount of water released upstream affects people and communities downstream.

Dhaka wants a new agreement that offers more certainty about the water it will receive during the dry season. It is also asking India to bring back a guarantee clause similar to the one included in the 1977 agreement.

Bangladesh's Water Resources Minister Shahiduddin Chowdhury Anee has identified this guarantee as a key demand. The country also wants the new arrangement to consider excessive monsoon flows, which can increase the risk of floods and damage to farms and livelihoods.

What Was the 1977 Guarantee Clause?

The 1977 agreement included a safeguard for Bangladesh's scheduled share of water. If the actual flow at Farakka meant Bangladesh received less than 80% of its scheduled allocation during a 10-day period, the release could not fall below that 80% level.

This does not mean Bangladesh was entitled to 80% of the Ganga's total water. The figure referred to 80% of the allocation scheduled for Bangladesh under that agreement.

The safeguard was not included in the 1996 treaty. Bangladesh now wants a similar provision so that its share does not fall sharply when water levels become very low.

Why Is Bihar Asking the Centre to Protect Its Water Needs?

The discussion is not limited to India and Bangladesh. Bihar has also entered the debate, asking the Centre to consider the state's requirements before agreeing to a fresh water-sharing arrangement.

On November 3, 2026, Bihar Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary said the state does not oppose Bangladesh receiving its share of Ganga water. However, he wants Bihar's needs for drinking water, agriculture, irrigation and industries to receive attention.

He also claimed that Bihar gets an opportunity to use Ganga water for only four months, from July to October. This is the Chief Minister's assessment and should not be confused with a restriction written into the 1996 treaty.

The treaty deals with water sharing at Farakka during the January-May lean season. It does not expressly stop Bihar from using the Ganga during other months.

Bihar's concerns also bring up wider questions about water availability, river siltation and the management of the Ganga. Some experts argue that these issues need a broader solution and cannot automatically be blamed on the international agreement.

What Is India's Stand on Ganga Water Treaty Renewal?

India has said that discussions on shared rivers can continue through the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), the official mechanism through which both countries discuss water-related matters.

On November 3, 2026, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India wanted positive, constructive and forward-looking relations with Bangladesh. He also confirmed that India had invited Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman to visit, but did not announce a date for the visit or confirm a final decision on the treaty.

Bangladesh, too, has taken steps towards negotiations. Its State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Shama Obaed Islam, said on November 4 that talks would be based on Bangladesh's legitimate demands. The country has expressed hope that both sides can reach a positive outcome.

For now, neither side has announced a final agreement. The Ganga water treaty renewal remains a matter for discussion, and the December deadline is getting closer.

What Happens If India and Bangladesh Do Not Reach an Agreement?

The existing agreement is due to expire on December 12, 2026. If both countries fail to finalise a new arrangement before then, questions could arise about how they will manage water sharing during the next dry season, which begins in January 2027.

However, the expiry does not automatically mean that water sharing will stop or that a dispute will begin. Both countries can continue talks and explore a new treaty or an interim arrangement.

The challenge is to find a solution that gives Bangladesh more certainty while also considering India's domestic water requirements. Bihar and West Bengal have important interests in the discussion because of their connection to the Ganga and the Farakka system.

Why the Next Ganga Water Agreement Matters to Both Countries

The Ganga supports millions of people. Farmers depend on it for irrigation, communities need it for everyday use, and its flow supports several important ecosystems.

The Ganga Water Treaty India Bangladesh discussions are therefore about more than dividing river water. They involve livelihoods, agriculture, flood management and the relationship between two neighbouring countries.

India will need to consider Bangladesh's concerns along with the needs of states such as Bihar and West Bengal. Bangladesh, on the other hand, wants a more predictable arrangement that protects its water supply during difficult months.

The Ganga water treaty renewal is not simply about deciding who gets how much water. It is about finding a workable agreement that both countries can trust.

With December 12 approaching, the focus now shifts to the negotiations. The real test will be whether India and Bangladesh can reach an arrangement that protects the needs of people on both sides of the border.