India's IT stocks just lived through one of their wildest weeks in years. The Nifty IT index crashed to a 52-week low on June 30, kept falling on July 1, then staged its sharpest intraday rally since May 2025 on July 2, all before HCLTech announced a $1.14 billion deal that sent its shares soaring.

For anyone with money in IT stocks or in gold and silver, this is not background noise. It is the difference between panic-selling at the bottom and catching a genuine turnaround, right as Q1 FY27 earnings season opens and precious metal prices sit near record levels.

A brutal start to July

On June 30, the Nifty IT index sank to a 52-week low of 26,425.85, according to Business Standard. TCS touched ₹2,037 and Infosys fell to ₹1,005.50, both fresh lows. The index has now corrected nearly 42% from its all-time high of 46,089, hit back in December 2024.

The rout continued the next day. Business Today reported that Infosys, TCS, Wipro and HCL Technologies all hit fresh 52-week lows on July 1, as the Nifty IT sub-index fell another 2.01%. JPMorgan piled on by downgrading KPIT Technologies after it flagged a weaker June quarter tied to a slowdown among European automakers.

The mood flips, fast

Then came the reversal. On July 2, the Sensex jumped 579.48 points, or 0.75%, to close at 77,502.12, while the Nifty50 rose 169.85 points to 24,175.70, per Business Standard. The Nifty IT index logged its best intraday gains since May 2025, with Infosys, Tech Mahindra and TCS leading the Nifty50's gainers.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, said the broader market rose as easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude prices lower, while dovish comments from the US Fed Chair reinforced expectations of cooling inflation.

HCLTech's Mercedes-Benz coup

The real jolt for IT stocks landed on July 3. HCLTech told stock exchanges it had signed a $1.14 billion agreement, reported by sources to be with Mercedes-Benz, to build and run an AI-driven operating model for the client's global digital workplace and enterprise network infrastructure, according to Kotak Neo. The contract runs from July 2026 to December 2031, with an option to extend by five more years.

What makes this deal sting for a rival is that HCLTech reportedly beat out incumbent vendor Infosys to win it. HCLTech shares jumped as much as 6% intraday on the news.

JPMorgan's reality check

Not every brokerage is convinced the sector has turned a corner. JPMorgan cut price targets on Indian IT stocks by up to 27%, downgrading HCL Technologies to 'Underweight' with a target of ₹1,000, down from ₹1,370, and Wipro to 'Underweight' at ₹160, down from ₹200, per Zee Business. It kept positive ratings on TCS, Infosys, Mphasis and Cyient.

The brokerage's note argued the sector has been stuck at 2-3% revenue growth for three years. "With AI deflation still only in Year 2, we see further headwinds to growth over the next two years," JPMorgan said. That AI-disruption anxiety is the same force TUI examined in its look at why India may be chasing the wrong AI race, and it is also squeezing the workers inside these companies, as TUI reported in its investigation into fake H-1B jobs stranding Indian tech workers.

Earnings season begins

The Q1 FY27 earnings season kicks off with TCS reporting on July 9, followed later this month by Infosys, HCLTech and Wipro. Nine brokerages compiled by Storyboard18 expect the six largest IT firms to post roughly 14% year-on-year revenue growth in rupee terms, and 12-13% net profit growth. Strip out rupee depreciation, though, and constant-currency revenue growth is projected at just 2.8%, a sign the underlying business remains sluggish even as headline numbers look healthy.

Gold and silver prices today

While IT stocks whipsaw, precious metals are holding firm. Gold in India today, July 7, is priced at ₹14,662 per gram for 24-karat and ₹13,440 per gram for 22-karat, according to Goodreturns. Silver stands at ₹245 per gram nationally, or ₹2,45,000 per kilogram, though Chennai's rate runs higher at ₹259.90 per gram.

Globally, spot gold slipped 0.38% to $4,149.10 an ounce, a pullback linked to a stronger US dollar making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive, per Bajaj Broking.

Between now and TCS's July 9 earnings call, expect more swings in IT stocks. The real test is whether deal wins like HCLTech's can offset the AI-driven slowdown brokerages keep warning about.