Israel's October 27 general election has left the country's next government uncertain. Early television exit polls pointed to a deadlock between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition and the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. By the morning of October 28, partial counting put Netanyahu's allies ahead, but still short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset, according to Reuters.

The vote was Israel's first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the wars that followed. High turnout and a stronger showing by Arab-led parties have complicated the coalition arithmetic, while the final result remains unconfirmed.

Israel Election Exit Polls: How the Numbers Changed Overnight

The Israel election exit polls released after voting closed at 10 pm local time initially gave the main opposition a slight edge in some television projections. Revised polls from Kan 11 and Channel 13 later showed the two main blocs level at 51 seats each. Channel 12 placed Netanyahu's bloc at 52 and the opposition at 49, according to The Times of Israel's election-night coverage.

The projections were not official results. Broadcasters surveyed voters leaving polling stations and updated their estimates as more information became available. The Israel exit poll results therefore describe election-night forecasts, not a completed count. Opposition politician Yair Lapid described the early numbers as a decisive setback for Netanyahu, while both Netanyahu and Eisenkot said they would work towards forming a government. Those political claims did not settle the question of who could command support in parliament.

Latest Count: Netanyahu Ahead, but Still Short of a Majority

As the Israel election count progressed, the balance shifted towards the incumbent prime minister. At 10:58 am Israel time on October 28, with 76.8% of ballot boxes counted, the Central Elections Committee's provisional allocation was:

Source: The Times of Israel, October 28. These are provisional seat projections, not certified results.

The latest breakdown put Netanyahu's Likud at approximately 27 seats and Eisenkot's Yashar party at about 21. These projections can change as additional votes are tallied, particularly absentee ballots cast by soldiers, diplomats and other eligible groups. Benjamin Netanyahu therefore had the larger bloc at this stage, but neither main camp could independently form a majority. Turnout was reported at 77.7%, its highest level in more than two decades.

Why Arab-Led Parties Could Be Crucial

The Joint List and Ra'am were together projected to win 19 seats in the partial count, a significant presence in the new parliament. They are not automatically part of Eisenkot's formal bloc, even though they oppose Netanyahu. That distinction matters. Adding their seats to an opposition projection may suggest a theoretical majority, but a governing agreement requires political cooperation.

Both leading camps have largely ruled out forming a coalition with Arab-led parties. The Israel exit poll results drew attention to the possibility of a minority government supported from outside a coalition, or allowed to take office through abstentions in a confidence vote. Neither option had been agreed by October 28.

Why This Vote Matters After October 7

The Israel election was fought against the backdrop of the October 7 attacks, the Gaza war and other regional conflicts. Voters were weighing questions of national security, political accountability and the government's future direction. Netanyahu portrayed his camp as capable of providing strong right-wing leadership. Eisenkot and other opposition figures argued that the country needed a change of government. Their claims represent competing political positions, not conclusions established by the vote count.

What Happens Next in Israel?

Final results are expected in early November, with November 4 identified as the scheduled announcement date. President Isaac Herzog will then consult party leaders and select the Knesset member he believes has the best chance of forming a government. That person need not lead the largest party. According to Al Jazeera's explanation of the coalition process, the initial mandate normally lasts 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension.

If talks fail, other members may be offered an opportunity. Another election remains possible if no government wins sufficient parliamentary support. Until a new coalition takes office, Netanyahu's administration remains in a caretaker capacity. The decisive question is not simply which bloc finishes ahead in the count, but whether its leader can gather enough support to govern.